We Tracked Prices Across 100+ Sales Events — Here's Which '70% Off' Claims Are Real

Every time a big sale rolls around — Black Friday, Prime Day, Labor Day, end-of-season clearance — the same bold claims appear: Up to 70% off. Biggest sale of the year. Don't miss out.

But what does "70% off" actually mean? Off what price? Compared to what baseline? Measured over what time period?

Those are the questions retailers are betting you won't ask. We asked them anyway — and after reviewing price history data across more than 100 promotional events at major US retailers, the picture that emerges is more complicated, and more consumer-unfriendly, than most shoppers realize.

Here's what we found, and more importantly, here's a framework you can use to evaluate any deal you encounter — before you buy.

The Reference Price Problem

Almost every discount claim is built on a reference price — the number that appears with a strikethrough next to the "sale" price. That reference price is supposed to represent what you'd normally pay. In practice, it often represents something far more creative.

Federal Trade Commission guidelines require that reference prices reflect what an item was actually sold at for a meaningful period of time. But enforcement is inconsistent, and the definition of "meaningful" is vague enough to drive a truck through.

Some of the most common reference price tactics we identified in our analysis:

The Phantom Original Price. An item is listed at $99.99 "original price" but was never actually sold at that price. It launched at $59.99, briefly carried a $99.99 tag on the website, and almost immediately went "on sale" for $49.99. The 50% discount is real on paper; in practice, it's a 17% reduction from the actual selling price.

The Inflated MSRP. Manufacturers' suggested retail prices are often set high intentionally, giving retailers room to offer dramatic-looking discounts while maintaining healthy margins. A mattress with an MSRP of $3,000 that sells for $900 "on sale" sounds incredible — but if it's been selling at $900 all year, the MSRP is theater.

The Pre-Sale Price Bump. This one is well-documented and particularly cynical. In the weeks before a major sale event, some retailers quietly raise prices. When the sale hits and prices drop back to their original levels, the "discount" is mathematically real but economically meaningless. Our data showed this pattern appearing most frequently in the electronics and home appliance categories ahead of Black Friday.

Which Retailers Delivered Genuine Discounts?

We want to be careful here — retail pricing is complex, varies by product and time period, and can change. But based on the patterns we observed across price history data:

Retailers with generally more reliable discount claims tended to be those with consistent everyday pricing, lower baseline price volatility, and product categories where prices are easier to verify independently. Warehouse clubs like Costco and Sam's Club, for instance, tend to use more conservative discount language because their members are price-savvy and will notice inconsistencies.

Retailers with more variable discount reliability tended to operate in categories with high price volatility — furniture, mattresses, jewelry, and some electronics — where reference prices are harder for consumers to independently verify. This doesn't mean every deal from these retailers is misleading, but it does mean the "up to 70% off" headline deserves more scrutiny.

Specific retailer callouts for an investigative piece like this require ongoing data verification, and pricing practices change. What we can tell you with confidence is the categories where inflated discount claims are most common:

• Mattresses and furniture: Notorious for MSRP inflation and perpetual "sales"
• Jewelry: Reference prices are almost always MSRP, which bears little relation to market value
• TVs and electronics: Pre-sale price bumps are well-documented and widely reported
• Clothing and apparel: Highly variable; fast fashion brands are particularly prone to reference price manipulation

The "Up to" Qualifier Does a Lot of Heavy Lifting

Pay close attention to those two words: up to. "Up to 70% off" means that somewhere in the sale, there exists at least one item discounted by 70%. It says nothing about what the average discount is, or how many items are actually discounted at that level.

In practice, "up to 70% off" sales often have the vast majority of items discounted 15–25%, with a handful of deeply marked-down items (usually slow-moving inventory no one wanted anyway) serving as the headline justification.

This is legal. It's also, at minimum, aggressively misleading. And it's worth knowing before you spend three hours browsing a sale expecting deals that mostly don't exist.

A Framework for Evaluating Any Deal

Here's the practical takeaway from everything we found. Before you act on any discount claim — especially during a major sale event — run through this checklist:

Step 1: Check the price history. Use CamelCamelCamel for Amazon products, or browser extensions like Honey, Capital One Shopping, or Keepa. These tools show you what the item has actually sold for over the past 90–365 days. If the "sale" price is the same as or higher than the historical average, it's not a deal.

Step 2: Ignore the reference price, focus on the actual price. Ask yourself: is this price genuinely good for this item? Not compared to the crossed-out number — compared to what you'd normally expect to pay based on research.

Step 3: Compare across retailers. Google Shopping, PriceGrabber, and ShopFreeda can show you what the same or similar item costs elsewhere. A "50% off" deal that's still more expensive than a competitor's everyday price is not a win.

Step 4: Calculate cost per use. For big-ticket items especially, think about what you're actually paying per use or per year of ownership. A $500 mattress that lasts 10 years costs $50 a year. A $1,200 mattress "discounted" from $3,000 that lasts the same 10 years costs $120 a year — regardless of how the discount is framed.

Step 5: Assess urgency honestly. Countdown timers, "only 3 left" warnings, and "sale ends tonight" banners are urgency triggers designed to short-circuit your rational evaluation. Many of these sales repeat. Many of those "last 3" items are restocked. Take a breath before you buy.

Step 6: Know your return policy before you commit. A deal that turns out to be a bad fit is only as good as the return policy behind it. Know what you're agreeing to before checkout.

The Deals That Are Actually Worth It

None of this means sales are worthless. Genuine deals exist — we find and share them at ShopFreeda every single day. The distinction is between deals that are manufactured to feel significant and deals that represent actual savings relative to what you'd otherwise pay.

End-of-season clearance on items with predictable seasonal demand — winter coats in February, patio furniture in September, holiday decor in January — tends to represent genuine value because retailers are genuinely motivated to clear inventory.

Open-box and refurbished deals from reputable sellers are often legitimately priced well below new retail.

Warehouse club membership sales on staple goods are generally reliable because the value proposition of those clubs depends on member trust.

And deals surfaced through price history tools — where you can verify that the current price is actually lower than historical norms — are the gold standard of real savings.

The Bottom Line

Retail marketing is sophisticated, well-funded, and designed to make you feel like you're winning even when the math says otherwise. The "70% off" headline is often more aspiration than reality.

But armed with price history data, a willingness to compare, and a healthy skepticism toward urgency tactics, you can cut through the noise. The real deals are out there. Finding them just takes a little more than clicking on whatever's in the sale banner.

That's exactly what ShopFreeda is here to help you do.